WP3: Winter Weather Forcing

Objectives

• Improving the nowcasting of snowfall intensity in heterogeneous environment
• Assessing predictability of motion-vector nowcasting in different conditions and environments
• Increasing our understanding of effect of mountains and sea to the snowfall intensity

Description of work

Preliminary analysis of SESAR1 de-icing validation campaign showed that the quality of the nowcast depends on the weather situation. The flow direction (in relation to mountains, sea) seem to have an impact. This WP is using raw data of that campaign, and more radar data from Finland and Germany, to asses (1) how the flow direction affects predictability (2) how the flow direction affects snowfall intensity (3) can we improve the nowcasting based on these.

Tasks

Task 3.0 Coordination of WP3
The coordination task assures the timely progress of the work and organizes workshops and phone conferences to monitor and optimize the progress among the involved teams. It is responsible for the co-operation with the project management in WP1 in the form of regular progress reporting and preparation of the deliverables according to the agreed schedule.
 
Task 3.1 Statistical analysis of  predictability in winter weather products
In this task we study the winter weather products developed for SESAR1 de-icing validation campaign to see, if the quality of the forercasts at certain airport depends systematically on the flow direction,  and if the "unpredictable sectors" can be linked to underlying terrain such as sea or mountains
 
Task 3.2 Research of effect orography to snowfall intensity
Mountains and hills can both increase and decrease intensity of approaching snowfall. In this task we use archived and  new collected measurements of POLDIRAD near Munchen airport, and data from other radars, to quantify the effect.
 
Task 3.3 Preparing the direction-dependant forcing fields for selected (2-3) airports
Based on the results of tasks 1 and 2 we prepare background fields for WP2, to be used to improve the short term snowfall forecasts based on flow direction. First guess fields will be demonstrated during winter 2017, and based on the results an improved version will be developed.
 
Task 3.4 Preparing the conversion tools for snow-related parameters
Based on existing literature and statistical analysis we select best possible equations to converst reflectivity (measured radar parameter) to liquid water equivalent, snow depth and visibility (the parameters used in different ATM  activities). The final selection of equations will be takin into account the priorities expressed by end-users in the survey of WP4.
 
Task 3.5 Publications
Task 3.5 coordinates the publication of the results from tasks 3.1 - 3.4 in refereed scientific journals, aviation-related publications and during conferences suitable for the addressed topics.

Photo: Elena Saltikoff.